“I have the same request for whichever party forms the next government: Do better. Do better as candidates. Do better as leaders. Do better for Canadians.”

It’s only 10 days before the 2025 federal election and I can’t believe I have absolutely no idea who our next Prime Minister will be. Given this year’s rollercoasting of voter intention, I wouldn’t dare to even guesstimate.

Late December/early January, I would have bet 100 per cent on Pierre Poilievre being the next PM. Angus Reid showed the Conservatives were ready to sweep the nation with 45 per cent of Canadians saying they’d vote CPC. The Justin Trudeau Liberals, meanwhile, were at the height of their unpopularity: a lowly 16 per cent of voters said they’d go red. Then Trudeau resigned and Liberal support swelled like the Bay of Fundy.

From mid-January to the election of Mark Carney as the new party leader, the Liberals enjoyed a steady upward trajectory, peaking at 46 per cent in March. The Conservatives, meanwhile, dropped a full 10 points to 36 per cent (more or less, depending on the pollster) and the NDP lost more than 50 per cent of its support. The Bloc Québécois, Green and other parties experienced less volatility, though neither was ever close to forming the Official Opposition, let alone the Government.

The reversing fortunes of the dominant players reflected, not just the rising/falling popularity of the leaders, but the issues most important to Canadians. In January, it was the cost of living and taxation. By March, it was the threat of American tariffs and imperialism. Poilievre and Carney’s perceived capacity to respond to those issues played a significant role in their poll positions.

Continue reading this story: click below to login/subscribe

Login or Subscribe