It is hard to imagine any deal requiring Ukraine to cede territory would not also require the U.S. and Europe guaranteeing that country’s sovereignty going forward.

War is not a game. It is deadly serious and like a wildfire driven by strong winds amongst tinder-dry woodlands, it is dangerously unpredictable. My last column focused on the Middle East. This one will be on the conflict in Ukraine. Much has happened in the past six weeks. The United States has a new president who will take office on January 20. Russia is slowly pushing back the Ukrainian front lines, albeit at tremendous cost of lives and equipment. Putin has brought North Korean troops onto the battlefield in return for the latest military hardware Russia has to offer, thereby emboldening President Kim Jong Un in his warlike ambitions.

Meanwhile, President-elect Donald Trump has promised a quick end to the war in Ukraine but has not said how he will achieve such a goal. And as much as Americans dislike wars, they dislike losing them even more. The President will thus be challenged to try to secure a deal to which President Zelensky will agree and one which will allow Putin to brag is a win for his country. This latter point is important. Whilst Putin is a dictator, no despot can remain in power absent some degree of popular support and Russia has paid an enormous price in lives lost and materiel destroyed. The Russian economy has been subjected to severe sanctions imposed by the West, interest rates are over 20 per cent and the ruble has devalued very significantly. Putin will need to show the result was worth the cost.

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