Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem says a new deal on Canada-U.S. trade may come within 30 days. However, it won’t automatically mean a drop in the Bank of Canada’s policy interest rate next month.

“Look, the reality is the administration of (U.S.) President (Donald) Trump… it is unpredictable,” he said to reporters, when asked about the bank’s determination of certainty in the trade relationship between Canada and its largest trading partner.

The word “uncertainty” appears 14 times in the released summary of deliberations of the Bank of Canada’s Governing Council (including Macklem), completed prior to the central bank’s key interest rate decision on June 4. The policy rate was held at 2.75%.

“Unpredictable” U.S. trade policy was seen as dovetailing with general economic uncertainty, but driven at least in part by the fallout from tariffs.

At the JAG Hotel in St. John’s, N.L. on Wednesday, to address a joint gathering of the Board of Trade and EnergyNL, Macklem reiterated the potential damage still to come, if the trade war and a high level of uncertainty flowing from it were to continue. In a prepared speech, he said continued U.S. tariffs and Canadian counter measures will lead to even greater economic slowdown and more job cuts.

“The best way to avoid job losses and price increases caused by tariffs is to not have tariffs,” he said. He also reiterated the Bank of Canada doesn’t have a direct hand in the trade relationship.

Coming out of the G7 summit in Kananaskis, A.B., U.S. President Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said they’d agreed to reach a political agreement within the next 30 days on Canada-U.S. trade. Of course, there’s not a deal yet.

“Let’s hope we can get a deal. But I think, even with a deal, I think we’re going to have to recognize we’re going to be living in a more unpredictable world,” Macklem added, speaking with reporters. He pointed to secondary global trade disputes, with specific reference to Chinese tariffs, and general geopolitical tensions.

When it comes to the Canada-U.S. deal, whatever it may include, Macklem said it remains to be seen what the implications will be and ultimately what it means for Canadian monetary policy.

During a public Q&A with Board of Trade CEO AnnMarie Boudreau, Macklem empathized with local business leaders, managing through the uncertainty and the demands placed upon them with the current state of global affairs. He said the central bank can’t remove the fundamental sources of uncertainty but remains committed to continue working to keep inflation in check.

He encouraged businesses to continue to diversify their supply chains and export markets, and promoted a continuation in work by governments to remove internal barriers to trade within Canada.

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