President Donald Trump is rolling out the red carpet for Canada to become the 51st state. Nova Scotians should strongly consider taking him up on this offer as we head into dreary, uncharted political and economic waters in 2025.

If you could decide which country you were born in, which one would you pick? Would your answer today be different than it was 10 years ago? This question matters because the country you live in is one of the most influential determinants of good quality of life, economic success, security and health. That is why America continues to be the destination of choice for immigrants seeking a better life. As a millennial Nova Scotian, when I ask myself which country will give me the best quality of living and the best retirement cushion, I am convinced it is not Canada but the United States.

As a millennial Nova Scotian, when I ask myself which country will give me the best quality of living and the best retirement cushion, I am convinced it is not Canada but the United States.

Everyone agrees that the incoming American administration will cause severe turbulence for Canadians. A 25 per cent tariff on our exports would devastate, if not decimate, our economy. The disintegration of NATO would place Canadians in a precarious security position when the world is a tinderbox. Canada is a broken country. We can’t get resource development projects approved until they are no longer viable. We have made policy decisions that directly created a housing crisis, health care crisis, food crisis and an inflation crisis. Heck, we can’t even present a planned economic statement without throwing the country into a political crisis of unparalleled and embarrassing proportions.

I could go on, but others already have. Suffice to say, being a Canadian is no longer an optimal state of being. Being an American would be much better. For these reasons, I argue that Nova Scotia should vote itself out of Canada and into the American union.

Most of the arguments I make below about why Nova Scotia would be better off as a member of the United States are more or less true for other provinces in Canada. So why am I arguing that only Nova Scotia should vote to join the United States, and not the rest of Canada? For one, as a matter of constitutional law, there is no formula for Canada as a whole to join another country. This isn’t to say a national referendum to join the USA would not be difficult for a court to overrule, but Canada is a confederation of provinces and the constitution already provides a means for individual provinces to exit. Since each province decided for itself whether to join the union (OK, Newfoundland may have been roped into it), they should decide when and if to leave.

Canadians will have more representation in Congress if each province joins individually. If all 10 provinces joined the union individually, we would elect 20 Senators out of 120…

Secondly, Canadians will have more representation in Congress if each province joins individually. If all 10 provinces joined the union individually, we would elect 20 Senators out of 120 – a sizable voting bloc in an institution that normally produces slim majorities of +1 to +4. If Canada joined as one whole state, we would be reduced to two Senators out of 102.

Moreover, Canada is a federation and so is the United States. I for one am glad that I have a local government in Halifax that responds to the unique challenges of my region, and I don’t want to replace my local provincial government with a new state government in Ottawa. Thus, Nova Scotia should lead the other provinces into the United States as unique states in their own right, rather than seeking to bring everyone in under one massive super-state.

Why should Nova Scotia lead the other provinces out of Confederation? We have a history of courting and being courted by our American neighbours. Nova Scotia, which then encompassed New Brunswick, was invited to attend the First Continental Congress in 1774. Americans believed we would join the Revolution because our economies were already so intertwined and Nova Scotians were equally outraged by British efforts to tax colonists, including notably the Stamp Act. We almost did. But a number of factors contributed to Nova Scotia’s decision to stay out of the Revolution, including the already huge British navy presence in Halifax, the loyalty of many former New England planters who had been given Acadian land in Nova Scotia following the genocide of Acadia decades prior, and the presence of a wandering preacher, Henry Alline, who was igniting an evangelical movement in the province at the same time that Americans were seized by cries of “no taxation without representation”.

Will America still accept an RSVP to a 250-year-old invitation?

Had Nova Scotians stuck with their original plan, we could very well have had our own sovereign state, or thrown in with the Americans a lot sooner and been a lot more prosperous as a result.

There are other reasons why Nova Scotia can inspire the rest of Canada to do what is best for themselves and their grandchildren. Nova Scotia is the birthplace of responsible government in Canada, a precursor to the formation of the Dominion of Canada, and we were among the four founding provinces of the Dominion. Lest we forget: the Dominion of Canada happened when central Canadians crashed a meeting organized by the three Maritime provinces to form their own union, and convinced the Maritimers to throw in with them instead. This would turn out to be a big mistake, as I explain below and as the present times suggest. Had Nova Scotians stuck with their original plan, we could very well have had our own sovereign state, or thrown in with the Americans a lot sooner and been a lot more prosperous as a result. We were also the first province to try to separate from Canada, twice in fact–take that, Quebec!

Confederation was a bad deal for Nova Scotia. Still is.

Like the morning after a Cape Breton kitchen party, Nova Scotians very quickly regretted their decision to join Confederation. In the provincial election held months after Confederation, Nova Scotians elected 36 Anti-Confederate Party politicians to the provincial assembly, which had only 38 seats total. In the first federal election held shortly thereafter, Anti-Confederates won 18 out of Nova Scotia’s 19 seats in the House of Commons. Despite this clear democratic mandate to leave Confederation, the British Colonial Office would not allow it, and the separatist campaign sank like the SS Atlantic.

But anger only festered among ordinary Nova Scotians, who saw their pre-Confederation economy destroyed by John A. Macdonald’s National Policy. The National Policy imposed heavy tariffs on imported manufactured goods in order to help the manufacturing sectors in Ontario and Quebec. Unlike their central Canadian counterparts, Nova Scotia did not have a manufacturing sector, nor did it need one, because Nova Scotia was ideally suited to prosper from its unique position as an international trading hub. Smack between Europe and America, Nova Scotia and our ideal natural harbour in Halifax were perfectly suited to an economy based on international sea trade. Before Confederation, Nova Scotia had a cushy deal with the British Colonial Office where it would be exempt from British tariffs on American goods, making the province a kind of free trade zone within the British Empire. We were far more invested in southern affairs than we were in Upper and Lower Canada. Confederation and the National Policy killed this advantageous position, and Nova Scotia’s economy began to decline after 1867 while wealth and power shifted to central Canada. Nova Scotia hasn’t really stopped declining in relative terms ever since. Before Confederation, Nova Scotia was the wealthiest province in per-capita terms. Today, we have the second-lowest GDP per capita in the country, edging ahead of P.E.I.

This did little to stop the bleeding of Nova Scotia’s economy, however, because the fundamentals of Canadian national economic policy always worked against our natural advantages.

Angered by their economic position in Confederation, Nova Scotians elected William S. Fielding as premier in 1886, who campaigned on a platform to try again to secede from Confederation. This too failed, again due to efforts by the British Colonial Office to keep the Dominion together. Nevertheless, Fielding and his allies succeeded in winning a number of legal and policy victories which shifted power away from Ottawa to the provinces, giving Canada the decentralized federation it has today. We have Nova Scotians and their independent, revolutionary spirit to thank for it. This did little to stop the bleeding of Nova Scotia’s economy, however, because the fundamentals of Canadian national economic policy always worked against our natural advantages. The decimation of our trading economy, and the subsequent decline of related industries like shipbuilding, ruined this province for a century to come, exacerbated by the decline of fishing and coal in the 20th century.

Today Nova Scotia is a have-not province with a high cost of living and no hope in sight. This year saw the highest single-year increase in the number of Nova Scotia children living below the poverty line in 35 years. The rest of Canada might be a bit better off, but not compared to Americans. Today, U.S. real GDP per capita is $66,300 USD; Canada’s is $44,400 (Nova Scotia’s is even lower at $41,700). To quote University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe, this gap is “truly massive”. The Anti-Confederates were right.

The economics of Nova Scexit

President Trump’s tariffs would put Nova Scotia, and Canada, into a great recession. Nova Scotia’s exports to the United States amounted to $4.38 billion in 2023, while imports from the United States were valued at over $600 million. A 25 per cent tariff on our exports would directly result in a loss of over $1 billion in 2025, and another billion each year thereafter. And this is only taking into account the direct cost to exports. Let’s take a low estimate that Nova Scotia exports generate $2 in total economic activity for every $1 exported; a 25 per cent tariff would cost $1 billion to exporters and $1 billion to the various local businesses that work with these exporters. The total economic loss from Trump’s tariffs: $2 billion, or four per cent of our GDP, every year until the trade war ends.

American tariffs are likely to last a lot longer than COVID lockdowns, with both Democrats and Republicans appealing to a pro-protectionism electorate. American tariffs will hurt us far greater and for much longer than the pandemic did.

To put this in perspective, the last time Nova Scotia’s economy shrank was in 2020, at the onset of the COVID pandemic. GDP fell 1.1 per cent that year. But American tariffs are likely to last a lot longer than COVID lockdowns, with both Democrats and Republicans appealing to a pro-protectionism electorate. American tariffs will hurt us far greater and for much longer than the pandemic did.

While Ottawa’s retaliatory actions will put some pressure on the Americans to end this trade war, they won’t shield Nova Scotia businesses from these losses. Subsidies and loans might provide a cushion, but these band aids are inflationary and paid by the taxpayer. The bill will come due, whether it is us or our grandchildren who pay it.

Joining the USA will eliminate these losses and will certainly provide economic boons. For one, operating in U.S. dollars would eliminate the approximately two per cent that Nova Scotia businesses spend on foreign exchange transaction costs. Exporters to the U.S. would save on the costs of international trade, accounting and finance, in addition to being more attractive to importers in other countries who prefer the U.S. dollar. The U.S. dollar is more stable and less prone to large fluctuations caused by the volatile price of oil. Adopting the U.S. dollar would likely spur more investment in the province, since the U.S. dollar is more attractive to investors (especially American ones).

Nova Scotia businesses would automatically have full access to the U.S. market in ways we haven’t had since pre-Revolution times. Even the best version of NAFTA is still a far cry from the unfettered access we would have as a U.S. state. Nova Scotians would benefit from having access to American employment opportunities; the number of jobs available to Nova Scotians would increase more than tenfold. Even remote American jobs are usually only open to Americans, either because American employers rely on funding that requires them to hire domestically, or because they do not want to sponsor visas and handle all the paperwork and risk that comes with it. These barriers to individual Nova Scotians seeking employment at American firms will be eliminated by joining the union.

Nova Scotians currently pay way more for the necessities of life than Americans. Free of Canadian supply management policies, we would save on milk, eggs, and poultry.

Joining America would make life more affordable for Nova Scotians. Nova Scotians currently pay way more for the necessities of life than Americans. Free of Canadian supply management policies, we would save on milk, eggs, and poultry. Nova Scotians pay more than $1,500 CAD to fill a 275 gallon oil furnace. In Maine, it costs $1,253.65 CAD to fill the same size tank. American federal taxation would be less of a drain on Nova Scotians. This includes income tax for many middle- and high-income earners, capital gains tax (especially for long-term gains), corporate income tax, payroll taxes, fuel taxes, estate taxes and sales taxes.

Nova Scotia’s resource sector would also benefit by getting new mining and offshore projects approved more quickly and with less red tape. Our trade sector, and the Port of Halifax in particular, would be poised for a windfall as American ports along the eastern seaboard are increasingly struggling to handle the incoming container traffic. Without the hassle of customs, Nova Scotia could rival the port of Savannah, Georgia, in terms of the volume of trade coming in and out of its harbours.

Of course, there would be economic costs associated with leaving one national state and joining another, but these too present opportunities and most of the costs are one-time or temporary. For one, Nova Scotians make up a significant portion of the federal payroll, with many federal offices located here. Many of these workers would be quickly hired by the American federal administration, because they have unique experience and inside knowledge about government operations in the province and they would be the most qualified individuals to manage Nova Scotia’s new place within the American union. But there is no guarantee that every federal bureaucrat will have a job under a new federal government. Likewise, there is no guarantee that these bureaucrats would enjoy the same perks and benefits that they have become accustomed to under Ottawa’s management. There are options to mitigate any loss to individual government workers, such as an early retirement incentive or a grandfather clause that allows former Canadian employees over a specific age to keep their entitlements. But these are all short-term challenges to expect whenever you move to a new house, or in this case, switch federations.

The shortage of doctors is one of the main contributors to poor healthcare quality in Nova Scotia. Many of our doctors have little choice but to move to the United States in order to pay off massive medical school debts, since the United States pays them much, much better than we do.

Joining America will solve Nova Scotia’s healthcare crisis

Nova Scotia is experiencing a healthcare crisis which would be alleviated by joining the United States. The shortage of doctors is one of the main contributors to poor healthcare quality in Nova Scotia. Many of our doctors have little choice but to move to the United States in order to pay off massive medical school debts, since the United States pays them much, much better than we do. The provincial government of Tim Houston has been trying to stop this brain drain by giving incentives, but also by requiring medical students in the province to commit to staying here for a period of time after they graduate.

Rather than spend so much time and money trying to stop medical students from joining the United States, why not follow them in, instead? I know many Nova Scotia expats who would love to practice medicine at home, if it weren’t for the terrible healthcare system and poor pay from our Canadian healthcare system. Joining the United States would alleviate many of these shortages. And we might even be able to bring some of our experience into the American debate, improving their own system which is costly and problematic in its own right, but still better than Nova Scotia’s current health system.

Joining America will solve Nova Scotia’s housing crisis

Nova Scotia is experiencing an epic housing crisis, with rental rates rising fast and homelessness along with it. I know there is a large population of patriot Canadians here who will never abandon Canada (and a large contingent of federal public servants who will never abandon their entitlements). I suspect that if Nova Scotians vote to give themselves a better future in the USA, many of the loyalists would choose to pack up and move to another province that wants to stay Canadian. This exodus could be just what we need to reset our housing market and eradicate the current housing crisis!

Whose military would Nova Scotians rather have protecting them as we head into a much more volatile world order? The greatest military in the world, or Canada’s rusty and malnourished military?

In rough waters, dock your dory at the strongest port

The economics are clear that, as we head into increasingly turbid and isolationist waters, Nova Scotians will be better off docking their dory with the American hegemon than with Canada, whose economy has never really worked for us to begin with.

On the point of the increasingly turbid and isolationist waters, whose military would Nova Scotians rather have protecting them as we head into a much more volatile world order? The greatest military in the world, or Canada’s rusty and malnourished military?

Imagine a Nova Scotia where snowbirds can fly to Florida without a passport. Nova Scotian students can study at the Ivy League universities at domestic tuition rates. We would have more American tourists visiting and spending in the province than ever before.

Nova Scotia never really belonged in Canada. We performed best when we were more integrated with our neighbors to the south. Now, the changing times require us to dust off that 250-year-old invitation.

We have a rare opportunity (and only a four-year window) to actually make this happen, with an American administration led by a president who wants to be remembered for making America great again. Trump would love to welcome a new state into the union. He will brag about adding an extra star (or more) to the flag and continuing the Monroe Doctrine of Manifest Destiny. If it means a better future for Nova Scotians, let him brag.

Isn’t the choice obvious, then? If trade war politics and isolationism are here to stay, I’d rather be isolated within the most powerful economy and military in the world. The economic and security benefits to Nova Scotians, especially the younger generations, will be immense. And it won’t be too long before most of our fellow Canadians make the same decision to ride the wave of change.

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Michael Kennedy is a fundraising consultant with clients in Canada and the United States. A concerned Nova Scotian Canadian, he wants to be a less concerned Nova Scotian American.

Reach him at [email protected]

The views expressed in this column are those of the author and not those of Atlantic Business Magazine. To submit an op-ed counter argument, email our editor.

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