If the standard economic metrics of industrial diversification, population and employment are any indication, the ROI to date for Shorefast’s $63.5 million seems, well, disappointing.

Despite eight years of concentrated effort, the fishery continues to be the biggest employer here, with the average age of employees at the Fogo Island Co-op hovering around the mid-50 mark. Nor are there enough of them. The same shift of workers is shared between two fish processing plants, one in Fogo and the other in Joe Batt’s Arm. And with only a couple of the 30-person shift in their 20s, the prospects aren’t promising for replacement workers when the senior crew retires.

Fogo Island’s population has been stagnant for the last five years, moving neither significantly above nor below the 2,500 mark for year-round residents. Predictably, school enrolment is in a similar holding pattern with 275 children registered for kindergarten through to grade 12 – comparable to what it’s been since at least 2005.

Informal discussions with both parents and teens around the island show a decided lack of faith in a Fogo Island-based future. Carly Holmes, 14, fully expects she’ll move away when she finishes high school. Alisha Snow, 12, is an aspiring nurse who hopes she doesn’t have to move and Chris Payne, 13, says he’d stay if there was enough work for him here, though he doubts that’ll happen. Meanwhile, Jane (not her real name) is doing everything she can to encourage her two teenaged sons to leave. “There’s nothing here for them. Yes, Zita has created some jobs that are keeping some people here. But there’s no future for my boys in that.”

At this point, you’re probably thinking that the pundits were right: the people of Fogo Island might have been better off if they’d been given the means to abandon ship. Still, there are signs of a turnaround, if you know where to look for them.

Look again at the population numbers: with the Island’s aging demographic, those figures should be in a natural decline. But the population isn’t dropping and school enrolment is stable, signs of the number of new people coming to live on Fogo Island: people like Amanda Stephen, Jacob Luksic and Bryan Pollett. Amanda is originally from Stephenville, N.L.; Jacob, from Brantford, O.N., is here by way of the Vancouver Fairmont; and Bryan, who also worked at the Fairmont, is originally from France. They are all young professionals, lured to Fogo Island by its world-famous Inn.

“There are excellent opportunities here for young people,” asserts Pauline Payne, the Inn’s operations coordinator. She lived and worked away from Fogo Island for 22 years, but was able to return because of the Inn. It has since become a family employer. Payne’s husband, Mark Fiset, works in maintenance; daughter Chloe, 13, is a tour guide; and son Sebastian, 12, is a dishwasher. “He begged for the job,” she explains. “He wants to be a chef.” Obviously a fan, she says that the Inn is a life-changing opportunity for the young people who work there. “It’s a chance for them to have a career, not just a job, on Fogo Island.”

Beyond the Inn, there are at least 10 other accommodation options on the island, a number of which opened during the last six years to meet the demand created by Shorefast. Former mayor Gerard Foley reports that there are approximately 65 businesses on the island (an average of one for every 39 residents). He also notes that the Town is proactively planning for new land use and increasing residential needs, a sign of confidence in the island’s “bright future.”

Then there’s the volume of ferry traffic: long lines and stranded passengers may be inconvenient, but they are also reliable indicators of rising visitation.

And let’s not forget the burgeoning cottage industries springing up around the furniture, textile and craft industries: there’s already a backlog of orders from Inn guests who want to buy the items they find in their room, proof that Fogo Island-made products are valuable must-haves.

That’s all in addition to the direct benefits from Shorefast itself: 350 direct person-years of employment; more than $12 million contributed to government coffers through taxation; 100 new, permanent full-time jobs in the arts, hospitality and cultural sectors; and a workforce with an average age between 35 and 40 years.

Many people seem to think that the Fogo Island Inn is the culmination of Shorefast’s activities. Instead, says Zita, it’s only the beginning. Plans are already in place for a “dynamically reconfigurable performance space,” and a recording studio, and a geologist in residence program, and… and…

And, realistically speaking, it’s still too early to tell if Zita’s vision, determination and pocketbook have been enough to ensure Fogo Island’s safe passage into modernity. For better and worse, its future will indeed continue to look much like its past.

Pictured below: A copy of the letter sent to every household on Fogo Island from Zita Cobb.